2012年BEC中级商务英语阅览讲义精选 1

??对商场而言，降息犹如毒品。它们能让人振奋，但也能致使依靠。就像瘾正人相同，商场需要越来越大的剂量，才干抵达相同的作用。 For the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. They can inspire

??对商场而言，降息犹如毒品。它们能让人振奋，但也能致使依靠。就像瘾正人相同，商场需要越来越大的剂量，才干抵达相同的作用。

For the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. They can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. Markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect.

这就为美联储(Fed)圈定了商场可以会有的表现。今日，美联储将开会抉择钱银方针。当它本年9月降息50个基点时，曾引发商场大幅上扬。可是，因为10月仅降息25个基点，致使商场故态复萌：美国股市下跌，信贷再次紧缩。

This has framed the market’s prognosis for the Federal Reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. When it cut by 50 basis points in September, it sparked a huge rally. But cutting by only 25bp in October prompted a relapse, as US stocks fell and credit tightened once more.

因为美联储官员招认活动性紧缩有所加剧，生意员猜测会呈现经济衰退，因而，商场认为美联储将再次降息50个基点。这引发了迩来的上涨。不过，这种猜测正在逐渐降温：期货价格闪现商场估计降息25个基点、而非50个基点。

With Fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. That sparked the latest rally. But that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.

为啥呢？各国央行上星期听起来还很强硬。英国央行(Bank of England)降低了利率，但宣告了通胀警告。按兵不动的欧洲央行(European Central Bank)听起来更像要加息，而不是降息。

Why? Central banks sounded hawkish last week. The Bank of England cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the European Central Bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.

可是，最重要的是作业数据。美联储受命完成完全作业，因而，糟糕的作业数据可认为大幅降息供给极好的托言。

Most important, however, is employment data. The Fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut.

上星期五发布的非农作业数据无法供给这个托言。作业人数添加了9.4万人，高于此前猜测的8万人。这样的数据闪现，经济没有滑入衰退区间。经过查询家庭而非查询公司汇编的家庭查询甚至闪现，作业增速还略有上扬。

Last Friday’s non-farm payrolls did not provide it. The number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. This data refuses to slip into recession territory. The household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly.

美联储可以根据这个数据做出确诊吗？寻找公司税项拨备的公司警告称，这种作业增加如同现已中止。 Can the Fed rest its diagnosis on this data? Firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped.

不过，美联储并不想在商场上诱导“瘾正人文明”，也不想体现出自个惧怕经济衰退。看起来，美联储最可以开具的药方是：联邦基金利率降低25个基点，并可以更大高低降低其告贷给各银行所根据的较高的贴现率。

But the Fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. A 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.